Please Note:-) That the Forecasts issued are not Nationwide, Only Torbay and surrounding area’s!!!
Key Abbreviation’s in Forecast
No Warnings Issued For Torbay!!!
(The Summer Solstice June 20th = Longest Day = Shortest Night) (Last weeks 6 day forecast was 95% Correct)
Chances of Snow within the next 14 Days 5% Updated March 31st (Clocks Go forward 1 Hour Sunday March 29th)
Forecast Issued Mar 28th Next Weeks Forecast Updated!!!!
Well over the next month or so we are going to suffer from lack of information due to the Covid-19? GDAS = (Global Data Assimilation System). This feeds a lot of Weather information in to the main computers, Mainly from Air/Shipping which helps to develop the Synoptic charts etc…… which Pro Meteorologists and us Amateurs use to try and give a decent forecast. So I can only give a guide from average runs. As after each 6 hour run there is major changes in the layout of the Synoptic charts as well as temperatures!!! But all we will be wanting is dry/warm and sunny conditions? For next week, it was looking very cold with wintry showers, but now it looks to be much milder with rain/showers? (you see the big difference)!!! Well I will do the the average runs = 28 from this week. Ok that’s enough of that, lets put this in to a more daily detail. Sunday dry with sunny periods, but cloud will increase from time to time. wind moderate to fresh locally strong NE/E, Temp 7/1ºC evening dry with a possible frost developing in places sheltered from the wind!!! *Monday generally a dry start with sunny periods, but cloud looks to increase with some possible light showers, wind moderate NE. Temp 8/2ºC evening any light showers fading to leave it dry with a possible frost developing in wind sheltered places.*Tuesday sunny periods as cloud will increase from time to time with a possible light shower, wind moderate to fresh NE/E, Temp 8/-1ºC evening dry with a frost developing where cloudless skies remain. *Wednesday dry with sunny periods, but again possible cloud increase may give an isolated light shower, wind light NE/N/NW, Temp 8/0ºC evening dry with a possible frost developing where skies remain clear. *Thursday a dry start with sunny periods, but cloud looks to increase with some possible showers, wind light to moderate NW, Temp 11/4ºC evening any showers will be well scattered. *Friday sunny periods and scattered showers, wind light to moderate W/NW, Temp 10/4ºC evening well scattered showers. Confidence 70%. As mentioned above!!! Looking ahead, well don’t take this for granted at this moment in time, but model outputs are giving a much warmer spell, with possible thundery showers!!! We will see what Mother Nature decides? Whatever the weather you have a good week. Forecast issued Mar 28th
Daily Local Weather Forecast Updates!!!When I can?
March 31st Tuesday :- Conditions today, generally a dry day with good sunny periods as there will be patchy cloud about, wind is a light to moderate locally fresh N/NE, Temp 9/0ºC evening dry with frost developing in places where skies remain clear of cloud!!!
Long Range Weather Forecasts (Spring Forecast Being Generated)
Oct 2019 :- Issued September 14th 2019 Confidence 60% Correctness for the Month 62%
Nov 2019 :- Issued September 14th Confidence 60% Correctness for the Month 95%
Dec 2019 :- Issued October 19th Confidence 45% Correctness for the month 23%
Jan 2020 :- Issued November 30th Confidence 75% Correctness for the month 45%
Feb 2020 :- Issued December 21st Confidence 55% Correctness for the month 50%
Mar 2020 :- The model output is looking to give us a period of cold conditions to start the month, and indications show here in the bay that we could see some snow events being driven by from a NE/E flow at times as Low pressure moves through in to colder air!!! But it is the AZ high that is again throwing out some of the predictions, as for the rest of the month it is basically a mixture, wintry/springy, frosts look to be much more prominent then previous months. Summary Rainfall average, Temperature Below average. Confidence 35%. Issued February 18th. Confidence 65%. Correctness so far for the month 65%
Apr 2020 :- As model outputs are struggling, I have taken the average outputs for this month. It looks to be a dominated easterly flow with plenty of showers, with a lot of them being thundery with hail, and I can not rule out snow as a NE flow could establish it self as well from time to time (typical Arctic intrusions). But some settled spells of spring sunshine also expected. So a changeable month on this one? Summary Rainfall average to slightly above, Temperature average to slightly below. Issued February 29th. Confidence 60%. Correctness so far for the month 0%
First Moon Quarter April 1st
Forecast Issued Mar 28th
Summary For the Week, a generally dry week with some well scattered showers, feeling cold in the wind, but temperatures look to recover as we head towards next weekend!!!