Please Note:-) That the Forecasts issued are not Nationwide, Only Torbay and surrounding area’s!!!
Key Abbreviation’s in Forecast
No Warnings Issued For Torbay!!!
Daily Local Weather Forecast Updates!!!
January Saturday 16th :- Conditions today, cloudy with outbreaks of rain, this looks to clear before midday with drier and sunnier conditions, wind light to moderate SW/W, Temp 10/3ºC evening dry with a possible frost developing in well sheltered places. BEWARE OF ICE!!!
(Last weeks 6 day forecast was 91% Correct) Next Weeks Forecast Updated Jan 16th
(Snow Watch) Jan 16th Chances of Snow Within the Next 14 Days 35%
UPCOMING WEATHER INFO-: Another week to keep an eye on, as model runs keep changing the intensity of the Low pressure systems and tracking, this of course will make timings of the approaching rain/snow bearing fronts moving in to our air space different. So it’s keep up to date daily on my daily updates above or local radio/tv broadcasts!!! As I have mentioned before this is only a guide (a pretty good one at that!!!) Temperatures will be on the up/down this week with plenty of rain especially as we head towards next weekend, just possible snow will be involved in some of the forecasts, especially for the hillier parts!!! Ok lets put this in to a daily detail below.
Next Weeks Forecast Starting Sunday Jan 17th
Sunday A dry day expected with sunny periods as cloud will be about, increasing at times, wind light to moderate NW/W, Temp 7/4ºC evening dry.
*Monday A dry start with sunny periods, but cloud quickly increasing with possible rain later, wind light to moderate locally fresh later SW, Temp 10/9ºC evening showery outbreaks of rain/drizzle with mist/fog patches roaming around!!!
*Tuesday A mostly cloudy day with showery outbreaks of rain/drizzle, just possible of some sunny glimpses, wind moderate to fresh locally strong SW, Temp 11/9ºC evening showery outbreaks of rain/drizzle.
*Wednesday A cloudy start with rain, some of which could be heavy at times, wind fresh to strong locally Gale force for a time SW and decreasing to a W/NW later, Temp 10/2ºC evening heavy rain clearing to possible thundery showers some of which could be wintry with hail/sleet/snow, especially on the hillier areas. BEWARE OF ICE!!!
*Thursday A generally dry day with good sunny periods, but can not rule out a shower as cloud increases from time to time, wind light to moderate W, Temp 8/1ºC evening possible wintry showers, hail/sleet/snow, also in wind sheltered places frost will develop. BEWARE OF ICE!!!
*Friday A day of sunny spells and some showers, some of which could be heavy and thundery with hail/sleet/snow especially the moors, wind light to moderate and gusty during any showers NW, Temp 5/0ºC evening any wintry showers clearing to leave a dry night with frost developing. BEWARE OF ICE!!!
Confidence 55%. Another low confidence in this forecast due to what I had mentioned in the news and upcoming weather sections, but I done well in last weeks with the same rating! Ok lets have a quick look ahead, Err Saturday is looking interesting, as well as the rest of the week with some impressive Lows!! We will see what mother nature decides. Whatever the weather, you have a good week.
News:- Looking at the latest Model runs! and it’s not set in stone? The PV is practically over head, or at least part of it, have not known this before, so it is well displaced from the North Pole. As for the model runs they give an Atlantic flow, as well as the AZ high keeping the SW of the UK on the mild side. But I believe the model runs are not coping with this (SSW). As mentioned last week, model outputs could change massively on every 6 hour run, as they have been doing over this last week. So on the current runs temperatures will be on the up and down, snow looks to be confined to the moors if any cold air intrusions move over our air space? As for the rest of the UK, especially towards the E/NE ice and snow looks to be on the cards!!! Oh yes just have to mention that There is no signs of A BEAST FROM THE EAST at this time, it’s more of a BEAST FROM THE WEST for us in the SW with the possibility of plenty of rain/snow. I will give a rough idea on next weeks model outputs on the upcoming forecast section.
RAINFALL amounts recorded in different areas can be vastly different, as the case in showers, so the totals I show, are recorded in my location, this will give a rough idea for your area in the Bay!!!
2020 June Total 99 mm Total Year to Date 515 mm
2020 July Total 23 mm Total year to Date 538 mm
2020 August Total 113 mm Total year to Date 651mm
2020 Sept Total 25mm Total year to Date 676mm
2020 Oct Total 118mm Total year to Date 794mm
2020 Nov Total 119mm Total Year to Date 913mm
2020 Dec Total 170mm Total for the Year 2020 1083mm
(The Spring Equinox March 20th , officially the first day of Spring)
Long Range Weather Forecasts (Spring Forecast Being Generated)
June :- Issued May 23rd.Confidence 30%. Correctness for the month 65% 2020
July :- Issued June 13th. Confidence 70%. Correctness for the month 85% 2020
Aug :- Issued June 13th. Confidence 85%. Correctness for the month 100% 2020
Sept :-Issued Aug 3rd.Confidence 70%. Correctness for the month 77%. 2020
Oct :- Issued Sept 12th. Confidence 60%. Correctness for the month 75% 2020
Nov :-Issued Oct 3rd. Confidence 50% Correctness for the month 55% 2020
Dec :-Issued Nov 21st. Confidence 75%. Correctness for the month 85% 2020
Jan :- I can only go by what the model runs are showing, as they keep going for some really cold conditions with plenty of snow and frosts, and to throw in to the scenario, freezing rain? Oh yes and we have some model runs going for the Atlantic with some nasty lows hitting our shores. So who will win? My guess will be the Atlantic not the Siberian High as model runs go? Rainfall average to slightly above, Temperatures below normal. Issued Dec 12th. Confidence 55%. Correctness so far for the month 35%
Feb :- Final month of Winter, conditions look to be remaining very cold at times with night time frosts, some of which could be very severe, But just possible indications of milder interludes as well, introducing possible gales with heavy rains, can not rule out snow during the cold spells!! Summary Rainfall average to slightly above, Temperature normal to slightly below!!! Issued Jan 9th. Confidence 50%. Correctness so far for the month 0%
First Moon Quarter Jan 20th
Forecast Issued Jan 16th
Summary for the Week
Another changeable week, with temperatures on a bumpy ride, plenty of rain about even some snow in places!!! Beware of possible warnings!!!