Please Note:-) That the Forecasts issued are not Nationwide, Only Torbay and surrounding area’s!!!
Key Abbreviation’s in Forecast
No Warnings Issued For Torbay!!!
Daily Local Weather Forecast Updates!!!
October Monday 18th Conditions for the Bay, mostly cloudy day with outbreaks of drizzle, possibly turning heavier as the day progresses, also possibly some short drier interludes!, wind light to moderate increasing S, Temp 15/15ºC evening outbreaks of rain/drizzle, possible some heavier bursts of rain in places, and mist/fog developing in places!!!🐬
(Last weeks 6 day forecast was 95% Correct) Next Weeks Forecast Updated October 16th
(Snow Watch) Resumes 2021 Nov 1st Chances of Snow Within the Next 14 Days 0%
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UPCOMING WEATHER INFO-: A big change in the next forecast, with plenty of rain/showers and strong gusty winds, don’t be surprised to see possible weather warnings issued!!! Also we can expect some big temperature fluctuations with very mild to cold conditions in short periods. The main reason is down to a Major Low pressure system that moves slowly E to the N of us, this system will give secondary Lows/troughs that could bring very windy and wet conditions at times. These develop and deepen as they move across our air space. So it will be advised to keep up to date with daily weather forecasts, Radio/Tv/ or my daily update section at the top of this page. Ok lets put this in to a daily detail below!!!
Next Weeks Forecast Starting Sunday Oct 17th
Sunday A generally dry start with plenty of cloud about, but this could break for a time to give sunny spells before more cloud increase later, wind light S/SW, Temp 16/14ºC evening cloud increasing with possible drizzly showers, and mist/fog patches developing in places!!!
Monday A cloudy and damp start with some drizzle/light rain, can not rule out some possible heavier rain in places! wind moderate to fresh S/SW, Temp 16/14ºC evening showery outbreaks of light rain/drizzle, mist/fog patches roaming around!!!
Tuesday A cloudy day with outbreaks of rain/drizzle, just possible of an interlude of dry conditions with sunny intervals before rain returns, some of which could be heavy, wind moderate to fresh locally strong and gusty S/SW, Temp 17/13ºC evening outbreaks of heavy rain!!!
*Wednesday A day of showers or longer periods of rain, some of which could be heavy and thundery, wind fresh to strong locally gale force during showers SW/W, Temp 12/9ºC evening heavy rain/showers, again possibly thundery in places and gusty winds!!!
*Thursday A lot of cloud about giving showers, some of which could be heavy, just possible the showers becoming more isolated as the day progresses, sunny spells expected throughout, wind fresh to strong and decreasing W/NW, Temp 14/5ºC evening generally dry, can not rule out a rouge shower!
*Friday Generally a dry day with good sunny spells, but can not rule out a rouge light shower, wind light to moderate NW, Temp 12/5ºC evening dry with possible mist/fog patches developing in places, also can not rule out a local frost in places!!!
Confidence 85%. As there is a few arguments with the two model outputs and timings! I am going with that Confidence😀 but I am just concerned about the secondary Lows/troughs Wednesday/Thursday, it is just how much will they form and deepen?🤔 Ok what’s the conditions looking like ahead. Unsettled mild/cold, but secondary Lows/troughs again a concern🤨 Whatever the weather you have a good week😊
News:- (Oct ? 2021) Tropical storm but no live Hurricanes yet!, the tropical storm is Namtheun. Storms having effects on model output runs!! The PV now building up strength, and at the same time doing some manoeuvres, as in displacing from the normal position over the Pole. This normally does this in December, so looks to be interesting for the upcoming weeks!!!Also we have another Volcano that is on line, this one is in La Palma, the Link 🌎 LIVE: La Palma Volcano Eruption, the Canary Islands (Feed #2) 1012 – YouTube Iceland’s Volcano has become quite once again at the moment!!! But who knows when will she/he start to erupt? And the other is a possibility of erupting in Iceland is Keilir? If you want to see it! here is the link (389) Geldingadalir Volcano, Iceland – Close-up camera – YouTube. Oh and just to mention the weather has a lot to play in viewing, as Low cloud (fog) is nearly always there!!! but you do get some nice days. Just a reminder the PV resides in the Stratosphere, and the JS in the Troposphere.
RAINFALL amounts recorded in different areas can be vastly different, as the case in showers, so the totals I show, are recorded in my location, this will give a rough idea for your area in the Bay!!!
2020 Dec Total 170mm Total for the Year 2020 1083mm
2021 Jan Total 138.6mm Total Year to Date 138.6mm
2021 Feb Total 73.4mm Total Year to Date 212.0mm
2021 Mar Total 29.2mm Total Year to Date 241.2mm
2021 Apr Total 13 .5mm Total Year to Date 254.7mm
2021 May Total 150.9mm Total Year to Date 405.6mm
2021 June Total 76.2mm Total Year to Date 481.8mm
2021 July Total 99.0 mm Total Year to Date 580.8mm
2021 Aug Total 28.0 mm Total Year to Date 608.8mm
2021 Sept Total 43.0mm Total Year to Date 651.0mm
(The Winter Solstice December Tuesday 21st) Autumn Ends!!!
Long Range Weather Forecasts (Winter Forecast being Generated)
Mar :-Issued Feb 13th. Confidence 65%. Correctness for the month 75% 2021
Apr :-Issued March 20th. Confidence 45% Correctness for the Month 50% 2021
May :-Issued April 17th. Confidence 60% Correctness for the Month 65% 2021
Jun :-Issued May 22nd. Confidence 60% Correctness for the Month 70% 2021
July :- Issued June 26th. Confidence 80% Correctness for the Month 75% 2021
Aug :- Issued July 24th. Confidence 80% Correctness for the Month 60% 2021
Sept :-Issued Aug 21st. Confidence 55% Correctness for the Month 30% 2021
Oct :- This month looks to start off on a wet period with possible very windy conditions and heavy rains, as we progress through the month it is just possible of a settled spell developing! and with this mist/fog will become an issue, as milder air moves up from the South, and at night even the first possible frost!!! But the Atlantic will open it’s doors again, especially with ex tropical storms roaming around, so again these could throw this forecast out of the window!!! Summary Rainfall average, Temperature average to slightly below. Issued Oct 1st. Confidence 50% Correctness so far 25%
Nov :- Possibly a mixed month of all types of weather conditions, with still ex tropical storms roaming around the Atlantic we could see the reminiscence of these as deep Lows bringing very windy conditions and rain in places, but also these could also bring in much colder conditions from the polar regions turning any rain to snow, especially the hillier areas, night frosts look to be more common!!! It is all down to how the PV & JS gear up!!! also ex tropical storms. All three will have a big impact on the outcome of this forecast in the tracking of these systems? Summary Rainfall average, and temperature below average!!! Issued Oct 1st. Confidence 60% Correctness so far 0%
Full Moon Oct 20th
Forecast Issued Oct 16th
Summary for the Week
An unsettled week, with some possible heavy rains/showers and possible Gales, can not rule out Thunder & Hail, mild start ending on a cold note for a time!!!