Daily Local Weather Forecast Updates!!!

2024 October 5th Saturday  Weather Conditions today, a dry start with sunny spells as cloud is well broken, but high thin cloud will be on the increase throughout the day making for hazier sunny spells, wind light to moderate, possibly increasing to fresh S/SE, Temp 16/12ºC evening cloud continuing to increase and lower to give possible rain later!!! Please Note: that any  showers/thunderstorms forecast, some places could remain dry!!! 

On This Day last Year 2023 October 5th / dry with sunny spells, albeit hazy at times due to high and low cloud roaming over, wind was a light S/SW, Temp 14.2ºC  Please Note: Last year reports had been recorded between 0700 – 0900hrs. 

Advance Possible Snow forecast within 14 Days ahead. This resumes  Nov 1st  2024  0%

Forecast updated October Saturday 5th  Last week’s forecast was 96% Accurate :- (timing/tracking) 

UPCOMING WEATHER INFO-:  A week of uncertainty at the moment as Kirk Cat 4/3 Hurricane at the moment is in mid Atlantic, and on current model runs it is either going to pass over us or head in to France? as a nasty Atlantic Depression with some exceptional winds!!! On earlier  model runs it was going to hit the SW with the centre of the Low passing over our air space!!! I have been watching this disturbance when it developed near the Verde Islands. It has been giving me some sleepless nights in a way. I am at the moment waiting for the next model output to see if any changes on tracking (Fingers Crossed). Right so  most of the week looking unsettled with some heavy rains in places, and turning showery in between the rain bands, windy at times!!! On the mild side but possibly turning colder midweek onwards. Right lets get down to putting this in to a more daily detail below!!!    Please Note: I do not change these daily ahead forecasts. This gives you an idea of the possible out comes for that day. That is the reason I do a daily update on top of this page through the week. Also Note: My Tempest is down at the moment, hopefully we will be back in action soon?

Next Week’s Forecast Starting Sunday October 6th        

Sunday Abundance in cloud limiting any sunny spells, there will be heavy showers or longer spells of rain, and these possibly thundery in places, wind moderate to fresh SE/S/SW, Temp 16/11ºC evening scattered heavy thundery showers!!!

Monday A day of sunny intervals and heavy thundery showers or in some places lengthier spells of heavy rain, wind light to moderate locally fresh S/SW, Temp 15/11ºC evening scattered heavy thundery showers!!!

Tuesday A day of heavy thundery showers or lengthier spells of heavy thundery rain, sunny spells expected, wind moderate to fresh locally strong S/SW, Temp 16/13ºC evening heavy thundery showers becoming well scattered!!!

*Wednesday A Kirk Day!!! At current model runs the GFS putting the system very close to us, which looks to give heavy torrential rains and wind variable  Gale to severe Gale becoming E/NE/N, Temp 14/11ºC evening heavy rain clearing to showers with winds abating!!! (Please Note) This could change for the better??

*Thursday A day of sunny spells and scattered blustery showers, wind moderate to fresh locally strong W, Temp 15/10ºC evening scattered blustery showers, winds abating!!!

*Friday A day of sunny spells and scattered heavy showers, the showers look to become less frequent as the day progresses wind light to moderate locally fresh S/SW/NW/N, Temp 14/6ºC evening generally dry with winds abating!!!

Confidence 80%. A week to keep up to date on local weather forecasts and the daily up date on top of this page. I will update possibly twice on Tuesday & Wednesday if ex Kirk decides to change his tracking? The Met office will most probably name this system? if it remains on the current model output status? Still 4 days to go!!! The bay could become extremely rough!!! Other than that an unsettled week ahead. What is the outlook? Changeable rain and showers!!! Whatever the weather, you have a good week!!! Remember any Showers/Thunderstorms forecasted, some places will not get them and will remain dry. 

PV= Polar Vortex

SSW= Sudden Stratosphere Warming

JS= Jet Stream

News: October Saturday?  Active Major storms at this moment in time!!! (0)East China Sea-0 Philippine Sea-0  Pacific Ocean-0   Atlantic-2 Leslie (Hurricane – Category 1), approximately 1215 km from the southernmost Cabo Verde islands, Kirk, (Hurricane – Category 3), approximately 1593 km from the northern leeward islands. Kirk is a headache at the moment, as model runs have been putting this system as a direct hit here in the SW as a very nasty Atlantic depression with some exceptional winds as the centre passes over. But fingers crossed model runs starting to get a grip of this!!! Something to keep a watch on, for any changes in movement/tracking. I will of course keep you up to date, and I dare say the Media will be going crazy as well as the Met office if it does look like a hit?!!!   Indian-0   The tropical Atlantic continues  once again with the possibility of a number of storms over the next few weeks developing, especially in the gulf of Mexico!!! Polar Vortex (PV)  People laugh at these weather/eruption events, I would say don’t be fooled. Mother Nature will in one way or another affect you!!! and may even harm you if you do not respect her!!! Earthquakes are always on the go. Here is a link to the world live earthquake  Live Global Earthquake Monitoring (youtube.com)  One other about Iceland, I have left the Iceland HD cams link, that practically takes you all around the Island? Here is the link for the HD camera’s of Iceland. Beware the weather may be bad with a lot of fog/ low cloud!!! Live from Iceland – Webcams around Iceland 

 Just a reminder the PV resides in the Stratosphere, and the JS in the Troposphere.

PV= Polar vortex, JS= Jet Stream, SSW= Sudden Stratosphere Warming.

RAINFALL amounts recorded in different areas can be vastly different, as the case in showers, so the totals I show, are recorded in my location, this will give a rough idea for your area in the Bay!!!

2020 Dec Total 170mm Total for the Year 1083mm

2021 Dec Total 101mm Total for the Year 973.1mm

2022 Dec Total 154mm Total Year to Date 887.7mm

2023 Dec Total 185.5mm Total Year to Date 1301.5mm

2023 Sept Total 131mm Total Year to Date 791.5mm

2023 Oct Total 170mm Total Year to Date 960mm

2023 Nov Total 156mm Total Year to Date 1116mm

2023 Dec Total 185.5mm Total Year to Date 1301.5mm

2024 Jan Total 97mm Total Year to Date 97mm

2024 Feb Total 187mm Total Year to Date 284mm

2024 Mar Total 178mm Total Year to Date 462mm

2024 Apr Total 99mm Total Year to Date 565mm

2024 May Total 89mm Total Year to Date 654mm

2024 June Total 16mm Total Year to Date 670mm

2024 July Total 106mm Total Year to Date 776mm

2024 Aug Total 41mm Total Year to Date 816mm

2024 Sept Total 131mm Total Year to  Date 948mm

(The Winter Solstice December 21st) Winter begins Autumn ends. 

Long Range Weather Forecasts (Autumn Forecast being Generated)

 Oct: This month looks to be very changeable, with warm and cold periods, and heavy rains look to be on the cards throughout the month and associated with some possible very stormy winds on current model runs. Though we do have a hurricane forming down in the Gulf, this could completely be thrown out of proportion (Beware). Some settled warm spells expected. Summary rainfall average to slightly above, Temperature average to slightly above!!! Confidence 45% Correctness for the month so far 5% Issued Sept 24th 2024. 

Nov:

Sept: Issued Aug 20th Confidence 50%. Correctness for the month  90% 2023.  

Oct: Issued Sept 22nd Confidence 45%. Correctness for the month  85% 2023.

Nov: Issued Oct 27th Confidence 55%. Correctness for the month 75% 2023.

Dec: Issued Nov 24th Confidence 65% Correctness for the month  55%  2023.

Jan: Issued Dec 23rd Confidence 50% Correctness for the month 60% 2023.

Feb: Issued Jan 27th Confidence 60% Correctness for the month 25% 2024.

Mar: Issued Feb 24th Confidence 45% Correctness for the month 30% 2024.

Apr:  Issued Mar 23rd Confidence 40% Correctness for the month  75%  2024. 

May: Issued April 23rd Confidence 50%. Correctness for the month  60%.  2024.

Jun:  Issued May 25th Confidence 45% Correctness for the month 60%. 2024.

Jul:   Issued June 22nd Confidence 55% Correctness for the month 45%. 2024. 

Aug:  Issued July 27th  Confidence 60% Correctness for the month 65%. 2024. 

Sept: Issued Aug 24th Confidence 55% Correctness for the month 55%. 2024.